“It’s pretty high confidence that it’s not going to have any direct impacts on the islands,” said Derek Wroe with the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
The hurricane is centred well south of Hawaii, and an indirect impact will be downward pressure winds from the hurricane, creating dry and breezy conditions.“There’s a lot of upward motion in the hurricane, and then there’s usually compensating downward motion,” Wroe said. “That should be the case here as well. So it will be dry, it will be breezy.” Those were the conditions that were prevalent when Hurricane Dora also passed well south of the islands in August 2023, and the associated winds led to the conditions that exacerbated the deadliest fire in the US in over a century.
The blaze raced through the historic town of Lahaina and resulted in the deaths of 102 people.
He said there are concerns that conditions with Hurricane Iona could be at or near red flag criteria.
“That said… wouldn’t be anything close to what we saw during that time with Hurricane Dora. The situation is just not that strong,” he said.
The pressure gradient created by Hurricane Dora created gusts that clocked in at 80 kmph in central Maui and well over 96 kmph on the Big Island. There were no instruments in West Maui two years ago to measure wind.
“We don’t expect anything even close to that,” he said, with possible localised gusts of over 64 kmph with winds running around 32 kmph.
On Monday, Iona was about 1,303 kilometres southeast of Honolulu, the US National Hurricane Centre in Miami said. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect. Iona is expected to strengthen and become a major hurricane on Tuesday July 29, before weakening around the middle of the week.
The hurricane has maximum sustained winds of about 137 kmph. It was moving in a generally westward direction at about 21 kmph.
A second weather system also formed. Tropical Storm Keli had maximum sustained winds of 65 kmph.
It was about 1,658 kilometres southeast of Honolulu and was moving west at about 19 kmph. It may strengthen over the next day, but, like Iona, it should lose power around the middle of the week.
Wroe said he didn’t expect any direct impact from this storm on Hawaii either.
The administrator of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency on Monday hosted a statewide conference call with all counties, during which the National Weather Service provided an assessment and status of the storms.
“All counties are monitoring,” agency spokesperson Kiele Amundson said in an email.
Another indirect impact from these storms could be swells, but Wroe said they are relatively small and moving westward and won’t create anything significant.
However, a large swell is headed toward Hawaii after being generated several hundred miles east of New Zealand.
It’s expected to arrive in Hawaii on Thursday, about the same time the storms pass the state.
“People might wrongly attribute the swell energy to be from these tropical systems, but they’re actually not,” he said.
He anticipates a high surf advisory to be issued for the south shores of the Hawaiian Islands, with a surf of 10 feet or higher.
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