A New Trade Order—And the Trident Partnership
The Trident Partnership encapsulates this shift, with India as the anchor and London and Brussels competing to deepen ties across three key pillars: trade, technology, and security. As the UK seeks to redefine its post-Brexit role and the EU aims to reduce its China dependency, both see India as the stable, long-term partner they cannot afford to overlook.This competition has only intensified in the wake of Trump’s second presidency, which has disrupted traditional alliances and forced Europe to rethink its global strategy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to India this week signals that Brussels is moving with urgency, hoping to secure an economic and strategic alignment that will offer resilience in a world shaped by geopolitical uncertainty.
The UK’s Brexit Gamble and the EU’s Strategic Shift
Since exiting the European Union in 2020, the UK envisioned a future in which it could build independent, dynamic trade relationships, free from EU-imposed constraints. That vision, however, has not materialised as smoothly as hoped. Now, with Trump’s protectionist policies back in play, London realises that time is running out. In the race for strategic economic ties, what should have been secured yesterday must be finalised today.
Meanwhile, Brussels is recalibrating its own approach to India. For decades, their ties have been defined more by mutual hesitations than by shared ambitions. But as both sides grapple with an increasingly transactional United States, an unpredictable China, and the disruption of global supply chains, they are discovering that their interests align in ways that demand urgent attention.
The race to secure preferential access to India’s market of over 1.4 billion people is as much about economic pragmatism as it is about strategic repositioning.
Von der Leyen’s Visit: A Pivotal Moment for the Trident Partnership
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, accompanied by the College of Commissioners, is set to visit India on 27–28 February. At a time when Europe is grappling with geopolitical turbulence—exacerbated by Trump’s tariff wars and an increasingly fragile security landscape—India’s role as a stable and reliable partner has never been more crucial.
For Europe, this is an inflection point. The continent is witnessing its first major war since the Second World War while simultaneously contending with fraying transatlantic ties and a fraught relationship with China. In this volatile landscape, a recalibrated partnership with India is not just desirable—it is imperative.
Von der Leyen’s visit signals that Brussels is willing to make a serious overture to New Delhi. India, too, appears increasingly ready to reciprocate, recognising that closer ties with Europe could bolster its position as a global economic powerhouse.
The UK vs EU FTA Race: India Holds the Leverage
The UK and the EU’s competition for an FTA with India underscores a broader reality—New Delhi is no longer just a participant in global trade; it is a power centre shaping its own terms of engagement.
For the UK, a post-Brexit trade deal with India is a strategic necessity. London needs to prove that its newfound trade independence can deliver results, and a successful FTA with India would signal that the Global Britain project is more than just rhetoric. India, with its booming economy and digital innovation ecosystem, offers precisely the kind of high-growth market the UK needs to strengthen its global economic standing.
For the EU, the stakes are just as high. With supply chain vulnerabilities exposed by the pandemic and an urgent need to ‘de-risk’ from China, Europe sees India as a crucial alternative. A deeper trade partnership would not only secure access to India’s vast consumer base but also strengthen Europe’s resilience in key sectors like technology, green energy, and manufacturing.India, fully aware of its growing leverage, is in no rush to make concessions. It has successfully secured trade deals with non-EU European states (EFTA) and other global partners while maintaining a cautious approach towards Brussels and London. Unlike in previous decades, where it might have been a passive rule-taker, India is now shaping the rules of engagement—on its own terms.
Beyond Trade: The Trident Partnership’s Strategic Foundations
While the road to a comprehensive trade agreement remains riddled with obstacles, the political, technological, and strategic imperatives for deeper collaboration between India, the UK, and the EU have never been stronger.
One of the most immediate areas of alignment is supply chain security. The EU and India share a fundamental concern about China’s dominance in global manufacturing. New Delhi’s China+1 strategy and Europe’s de-risking agenda are naturally converging, paving the way for enhanced collaboration in semiconductor production, critical minerals, and infrastructure resilience.
Beyond commerce, connectivity is emerging as a defining theme of their engagement. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), unveiled in 2023, is an ambitious response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. If executed effectively, this corridor—anchored by key European economies such as France, Italy, and Greece—could reshape regional trade flows, mitigate chokepoint disruptions like those in the Suez Canal, and serve as a stabilising force in an increasingly volatile neighbourhood.
The movement of people is another area ripe for collaboration. While Europe remains deeply divided on immigration, its need for high-skilled talent is undeniable. India, with its demographic advantage and growing base of skilled professionals, offers a natural solution. The recent mobility agreements, such as the one between India and Germany, could serve as a template for broader arrangements, allowing both sides to benefit from structured human capital flows while addressing concerns over illegal migration and labour market disruptions.
Technology: The Glue Binding India, the UK, and the EU
Perhaps the most compelling force binding The Trident Partnership together is technology. Their Trade and Technology Council (TTC) underscores a shared recognition that digital infrastructure, AI governance, semiconductor supply chains, and green technologies will shape the future of economic and strategic competition.
Unlike the United States, where regulatory approaches often diverge sharply from those in Europe and India, New Delhi, London, and Brussels share a cautious yet ambitious vision for digital sovereignty and global standards-setting. If harnessed correctly, this alignment could enable them to shape international rules on emerging technologies in ways that reflect their democratic values and economic aspirations.
A Relationship No Longer an Afterthought
For all these promising signs, the India-UK-EU relationship remains hindered by persistent misapprehensions. European and British policymakers often struggle to navigate India’s domestic complexities, while New Delhi sometimes views Brussels and London through the prism of past bureaucratic inertia. However, Von der Leyen’s visit presents a rare opportunity to recalibrate this engagement, focusing on areas of convergence rather than roadblocks.
In an increasingly fragmented world, The Trident Partnership—anchored by India—offers the UK and the EU a rare chance to reshape global trade, strengthen economic resilience, and forge a strategic alliance fit for the future.
And the question is: who will seize the moment first?
—The author, Dr. Srinath Sridharan ( @ssmumbai), is a Corporate advisor & Independent Director on Corporate Boards. The views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here
