Trump-Putin meeting may ease tariffs threatening India’s energy imports, says former Ambassador

Upcoming US-Russia summit could influence sanctions on India and reshape energy diplomacy, experts tell CNBC-TV18. As India faces a 50% tariff threat from the US for its Russian oil purchases, the scheduled summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may hold key outcomes for India’s diplomatic and economic positioning.“Anything that lessens the tensions and gives Donald Trump an excuse to ease up — I think he’s looking for an excuse. He wants a way out,” said Deepak Bhojwani, former ambassador. He added that Trump’s aggressive rhetoric might partly be bluster, but warned of unpredictable moves ahead of the August 27 tariff deadline.

Bhojwani emphasised that India remains committed to its national interest. While reports suggest a slight dip in India’s Russian crude imports in July and possibly August, he sees this as a cautious test of US response rather than a permanent shift. Indian state-owned oil companies generally follow government directives, while private firms like Reliance and Nayara maintain some flexibility.

The global crude oil market’s fluidity offers India alternatives, though at a potential price. “The question will be one of price. Do we pay a little bit more, maybe $1 or $2 per barrel, to import from Saudi Arabia or Iraq or wherever else?” Bhojwani explained.The US’s selective tariffs reveal broader strategic calculations. Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow at Taihe Institute, pointed out the targeting of BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa—with steep tariffs, but sparing China for now. “The BRICS scare America. The idea that 40% of the world’s GDP…would somehow come together to tell the United States to knock it off or there would be consequences — is something that Donald Trump fears,” Tangen said. He added that America’s approach looks like “classic playground bullying,” and urged Indian policymakers to see the “larger picture.”

India is seeking diplomatic reprieve through dialogue with US lawmakers, including Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who had earlier called for even harsher tariffs on Indian buyers of Russian oil. Meanwhile, India has reassured that crude oil purchases from the US have risen by over 70% this year, and LNG imports are expected to grow further.

With the high-stakes US-Russia summit days away, the coming weeks could define how India balances its energy security, strategic partnerships, and evolving global geopolitical pressures. Bhojwani concluded cautiously, “Let’s see what happens. I believe that Donald Trump and his team may have got a sense that they can’t push Russia too far. And Trump is looking not for a win here, but for a way out.”

Watch the accompanying video for the entire discussion.