Saturday, August 9, 2025

Trump tariff-driven volatility won’t derail long-term market outlook, says Matt Orton

Date:

Matt Orton, Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investments, believes that market fluctuations due to uncertainty on US tariffs are short-term hurdles rather than lasting disruptions.Tariffs are being used primarily as a negotiating tactic. Orton sees the ongoing trade discussions as part of US President Donald Trump’s broader strategy to balance domestic industry competitiveness while maintaining geopolitical leverage. “India is a strategic partner, and I fully expect to see a deal,” Orton said.

Despite market sell-offs of over 5% due to tariff concerns, Orton has been advising clients to view these downturns as buying opportunities.

Also Read | Not just Trump’s tariffs, India’s banking squeeze may be fuelling the dollar flightThe timing of recent tariff discussions coincides with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US, he noted.

Looking at the broader market trends, Orton pointed out that India has remained relatively insulated from global economic downturns. However, concerns around high valuations, slowing growth, and earnings normalisation are now affecting sentiment.
He remains positive about India’s earnings potential, citing strong performances from select companies and recommends keeping capital ready for investment during market dips.But for the Indian market to stage a strong recovery, the dollar has to weaken. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken measures, including a rate cut, to support the economy, but passive foreign investments into Indian equities will remain limited until the dollar weakens.

Also Read | FIIs unlikely to return to mid or small caps soon, says Ambit’s equity head

He expects market sentiment to improve once tariff negotiations settle and India’s earnings growth accelerates. That combination could enable India to start outperforming again, likely in the second half of the year.

Among sectoral and stock bets, Orton pointed to Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) as a prime “buy-the-dip” stock, describing it as a high-quality company with exposure to both the auto and farm implement businesses. The farm segment, previously a drag, is now benefiting from government support for rural farmers and a strong auto lineup.

ICICI Bank also remains one of his top picks, citing strong earnings and increased interest in private banks. RBI’s rate cut will benefit banks, and ICICI is well-positioned to capture growth from India’s expanding middle class.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here

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