Measures of the job market are being closely watched on Wall Street and by the Federal Reserve as the most recent government data suggests hiring has slowed sharply since this spring. Job gains have averaged just 35,000 a month in the three months ending in July, barely one-quarter what they were a year ago.
Weekly applications for jobless benefits are seen as a proxy for layoffs and have mostly settled in a historically healthy range between 200,000 and 250,000 since the US began to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic more than three years ago.While layoffs are low, hiring has also weakened as part of what many economists describe as a “no hire, no fire” economy.
Growth has weakened so far this year as many companies have pulled back on expansion projects amid the uncertainty surrounding the impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Growth slowed to a 1.3% annual rate in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% in 2024.
The weakness in the job market is a key reason that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that the central bank may cut its key interest rate at its next meeting Sept 16-17. A cut could reduce other borrowing costs in the economy, including mortgages, auto loans, and business loans.
