US tariffs on Indian pharma will be hard to implement & inflationary: Systematix’s Vishal Manchanda

The United States may find it difficult to impose tariffs on Indian pharmaceutical products as it would likely drive up costs and contribute to inflation, according to Vishal Manchanda, Pharma Analyst at Systematix Group.Manchanda explained that Indian pharma companies operate on lower manufacturing costs compared to the US, and any tariffs would make drug production in the US significantly more expensive. “If the US wants to manufacture these drugs in-house, it will be at least twice as costly, if not more,” he said.

Furthermore, he stated that the US lacks the infrastructure to produce these drugs domestically at scale, making it unlikely for tariffs to be implemented effectively.

Meanwhile, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries stands to gain significantly from its recent acquisition of Checkpoint Therapeutics, which gives it access to the PD-L1 inhibitor, cosibelimab. This drug, used for treating skin cancer, represents a large market opportunity.

Also Read: Trump tariffs on drugs: Five ways it could end, as per Lupin Global CFO

Manchanda said that Sun Pharma already has US Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) approval and an existing market presence in this segment. “Based on prevalence data, even with just a 10% market share, sales could reach $250 million,” he said, adding that peak sales could exceed $500 million. Sun Pharma paid $350 million upfront for the acquisition, with additional payments tied to performance milestones.On the other hand, Jubilant Pharmova faces some uncertainty due to potential US tariffs on Canadian imports. The company manufactures certain products in Canada and exports them to the US, making it vulnerable if these tariffs are reinstated. While current exemptions have kept its products unaffected, Manchanda said that the situation remains uncertain.

Also Read: Trump’s tariff threat takes the wind out of India’s pharma stocks

However, aside from this concern, he highlighted Jubilant Pharmova’s strong positioning in sterile contract manufacturing and the growing radiopharmaceutical market, making it a compelling long-term growth story.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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