Friday, August 8, 2025

US yet to feel Trump tariff fallout — March import prices fall, export prices flat, missing forecasts

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US import and export prices came in softer than expected in March, signalling subdued inflationary pressures from global trade. Import prices declined 0.1% month-on-month, against economists’ expectations of a 0.2% rise, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Monday, April 15. Export prices were flat on the month, also missing the forecast of a 0.2% increase.On a year-over-year basis, import prices rose 0.9%, well below the anticipated 2.4% gain. Export prices climbed 2.4% compared with March 2024, slightly under the forecast of 2.5%.

The surprise dip in import prices was largely driven by a 2.3% fall in fuel costs — led by a 1.5% drop in petroleum and a steep 19.8% plunge in natural gas. This was the sharpest monthly decline for fuel imports since September 2024.
Stripping out fuel, import prices ticked up 0.1%, matching February’s increase. Non-fuel imports were up 1.5% on an annual basis.Export prices showed no monthly change after rising for two straight months. Agricultural export prices were flat, with higher soybean prices offsetting declines in wheat and rice.

Non-agricultural export prices slipped 0.1%, the first decline since September. However, on a yearly basis, non-agricultural export prices rose 2.5%, driven by stronger capital goods and consumer products. Agricultural export prices rose 1.4% year-over-year (YoY).

Among imports, capital goods prices rose 0.3%, led by gains in civilian aircraft and telecom gear. But consumer goods dropped 0.2%, and auto prices continued their decline for a fourth straight month.

On the export front, capital goods rose 0.5%, while vehicle and consumer goods prices were up 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

Import prices from China fell for a third straight month, down 0.2% in March and 0.9% YoY. Prices from Japan rose 0.5%, while Canadian imports dropped 1.5%, the steepest monthly fall among major trading partners.

Export prices to Canada surged 2.4%, the biggest monthly gain since March 2022. Prices to Japan rose 0.7%, while exports to China edged up 0.1%.

ALSO READ: India’s trade deficit jumps to $21.5 bn in March, after 3-year low in February

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