Apart from pricing, Chadha expects volume growth to play a significant role in boosting sector performance in the second half. He believes demand will be meaningfully higher than in the first half, driven by better project activity and infrastructure rollout. While the southern region has seen stronger price hikes recently, he cautioned that this is partly due to a low base after a prolonged period of weak pricing.
In contrast, the north continues to see more stable price trends and stronger volume support thanks to government-led infrastructure push. “Revenue being a factor of both volumes and pricing, it’s very hard to say that south will be better than north,” he said.
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Given regional variations, Chadha sees UltraTech Cement as a relatively safer pick due to its pan-India presence. Among midcaps, Nomura prefers The Ramco Cements, citing its ability to reduce costs, especially on power and fuel, to improve profitability despite competitive pressures. Chadha was cautious on Nuvoco Vistas Corporation, stating that its recent acquisition is “an expensive expansion”, and it remains to be seen how it integrates the asset and manages capex.
On the Adani Group cement companies, Chadha said Nomura prefers Ambuja Cements over ACC, pointing to better asset quality, stronger cost-saving potential, and ongoing capex. He also acknowledged the possibility of a future merger between the two, where “Ambuja stockholders might be preferred.”
For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video
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