Sunday, October 12, 2025

Weak movie lineup clouds PVR INOX’s outlook, says analyst

Date:

The near term outlook for PVR INOX’s remains uncertain due to a weak pipeline of upcoming films, according to Jinesh Joshi, Research Analyst at brokerage firm Prabhudas Lilladher.”Box office collections are likely to be in the band of 1,700 to 1,900 crore for the quarter (January-March 2025). And historically, whenever this has been the box office number, PVR has struggled for profitability,” he said.

Prabhudas Lilladher has a ‘hold’ rating on the PVR stock with a target price of 1,200 per share.

He believes that if there are two consecutive quarters of strong movie releases, PVR INOX could see meaningful gains, given its 50% screen share. “So, we will wait for that.”

Joshi also commented on Karnataka’s proposal to cap movie ticket prices at 200, including for multiplexes. He said that Karnataka accounts for about 12% of PVR’s screen mix, with 215 screens in the state. However, the proposal is still under discussion, so the actual impact remains uncertain.

Also Read: PVR Inox’s Sanjiv Bijli on Indian audiences’ growing appetite for global cinema
Also, several southern states already have similar ticket price caps, and the effect on PVR will depend on whether the limit applies to weekends and premium formats.Joshi recalled that PVR had successfully challenged a similar order in 2018, suggesting that the company may find ways to reduce the impact if the cap is enforced.

On Zee Entertainment, Joshi pointed out that promoter buying is a positive signal, indicating that the company’s situation is improving. He said that Zee’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) loss in its digital business was at a multi-quarter low, and the stock’s valuation remains attractive at 9x 2025-26 (FY26) earnings per share (EPS).

“To turn constructive on this name, we will have to see how the recovery in the ad environment happens. So, if my memory serves me right, from the July-September 2022 (Q2FY23) we have seen these domestic advertising revenue decline barring one quarter. So, one should ideally wait for an improvement on the ad environment side, and if that happens, it can be an icing on the cake, for sure,” he said.

Joshi expects Zee Entertainment’s EBITDA margin to be around 15-16% in FY26.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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