Pandey stated that the market’s negative reaction to the announcement — with Vodafone Idea’s stock falling more than 10% — reflected disappointment over the scale of relief. “The market was expecting close to a 50% cut in these AGR dues. But I think they have frozen the dues at close to ₹87,000 crore, which remains very high,” he said. While the package includes a five-year moratorium on payments, he said that the relief was “somewhat less than what the street was expecting.”
Although the moratorium could lower the net present value of AGR dues by an estimated 25–30%, Pandey stressed that Vodafone Idea’s financial position remains stretched. “Vodafone would need to raise a fresh equity fund, a massive amount to ramp up its capex, to strengthen its balance sheet because the other two players are just too strong,” he said. With total debt of around ₹2 lakh crore and cash of roughly ₹10,000 crore, he believes funding competitive capital expenditure will remain a challenge. He also assigned a low probability — around 10–15% — to any further reduction in AGR liabilities by the Department of Telecommunications (DoT).
On the impact of the relief package on tower companies, Pandey described the development as broadly neutral for Indus Towers. “For Indus Tower, Vodafone needs to survive. It may or may not thrive, but it needs to survive. And with this announcement, Vodafone would survive,” he said. He added that receivables from Vodafone Idea have come down significantly and that Indus Towers’ valuation looks attractive, especially with scope for tenancy ratios to improve from the current 1.65x as 5G rollouts gather pace.
Also Read: Vodafone Idea still has a long climb ahead, says Axis CapitalThe discussion then moved to the broader sector, including the potential listing of Reliance Jio. Pandey pegged Jio’s valuation at around $150 billion, based on roughly 13 times its estimated September 2027 earnings, factoring in an expected tariff hike across the industry in the next three to four months. He stated that the highly concentrated market structure has pushed valuation multiples higher for both Jio and Bharti Airtel, reflecting their strong pricing power.
Also Read: Vodafone Idea AGR Dues: What next for the struggling telecom operator?
Comparing the two leaders, Pandey said Bharti Airtel stands out on capital efficiency, highlighting its use of non-standalone architecture for 5G deployment, which has kept capex lower and supported a stronger return on capital employed. At the same time, he acknowledged Reliance Jio’s scale and continued market share gains, built on a robust 4G and 5G network. “In my case, I would give a higher weightage to Bharti and slightly lower weightage to Reliance Jio in a telecom portfolio,” he concluded.
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