On the supply side, Singh pointed to possible shutdowns at aluminium smelters in Mozambique, Iceland, and Australia, along with China’s production cap of 45 million tonnes. Due to this imbalance, Nalco has revised its earlier aluminium price assumption for 2026 from $2,670 per tonne to a higher range of $2,900–$3,000 per tonne.In contrast, Singh said the outlook for alumina remains weak. Alumina prices have declined to around $310–$320 per tonne and are expected to stay in the $320–$330 range next year. He attributed this to excess supply from new refinery capacities in Indonesia and India, along with lower demand following smelter shutdowns. “There is an excess of alumina in the market,” he said, adding that this has kept prices under pressure.
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Singh said Nalco has not hedged its aluminium production to benefit fully from rising prices. “We are not still now going in for any kind of hedging as far as aluminium is concerned,” he said. For alumina, the company may consider hedging if prices move closer to $350 per tonne.On costs, Singh said Nalco is focusing on internal efficiencies. The company is increasing coal supply from its captive Utkal D and E blocks to 4 million tonnes this year. Captive coal is cheaper by ₹200–₹300 per tonne compared with market purchases, leading to savings of ₹100–₹150 crore annually. Nalco is also working to reduce employee costs from 16% of total costs to 10–12% over the next three to four years through retirements, selective hiring, and outsourcing of non-core work.
On margins, Singh said the current quarter is likely to remain in line with the previous quarter at around 44–45%. However, he said margins in the final quarter could ease to 42–43% due to higher input costs such as caustic soda and calcined petroleum coke.
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Nalco’s expansion plans remain on track. The 1 million tonne per annum alumina refinery expansion is 85% complete and is expected to be commissioned in June 2026, adding 4–5 lakh tonne of output in the next financial year. Capital expenditure is estimated at ₹1,700 crore for the current and next year, rising to ₹2,500–₹3,000 crore thereafter as work begins on a new smelter and power plant.
Singh said Nalco is not a divestment candidate and confirmed that dividend payouts will continue despite higher capital expenditure, supported by rising revenues. Nalco currently has a market capitalisation of ₹53,390.89 crore, and its shares have gained over 34% in the past year.
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