| F&O Series | Returns (Points) |
| July 2025 | -781 |
| June 2025 | 715 |
| May 2025 | 587 |
| April 2025 | 655 |
| March 2025 | 1,047 |
| February 2025 | -705 |
The setup for the August series promises to be an interesting one. The last four August series has seen the Nifty gain in three of the, with average returns ranging from 3% to 5%.
| August Series Year | Returns (Points) | Returns (%) |
| 2021 | 859 | 5.4 |
| 2022 | 593 | 3.5 |
| 2023 | -406 | -2.1 |
| 2024 | 745 | 3.1 |
The Nifty begins the August series with lower rollovers. The 75.7% figure is lower than the three-month average of 79.2%.
| Series | Rollovers |
| August | 75.7% |
| July | 79.5% |
| June | 79.1% |
| May | 79.1% |
| April | 76.1% |
FII exposure at the start of this series is at a multi-year low for the Nifty. The 10% long exposure is the lowest since 2023.
| Month | FII Longs In Futures |
| August | 10% |
| July | 38% |
| June | 20% |
| May | 41% |
| April | 40% |
However, a low FII long exposure is a positive for the Nifty. The last three instances, when the FII exposure had hit similar lows, the Nifty ended up gaining over 2,000 points over the next few series.
| Series | Long % | Nifty Move |
| April 2023 | 9 | +2,579 Points In Next 4 Series |
| November 2023 | 11 | +2,921 Points In Next 2 Series |
| February 2025 | 11 | +2,300 Points In Next 5 Series |
On the flip side, clients, or higher networth individuals (HNIs) are 70% long in index futures, a fairly high figure, and suggesting conviction about an upmove on the index. Net long contracts here stand at 1.04 lakh.Among the key triggers in the August series include the global updates around the tariff uncertainties, the policy outcome of the Reserve Bank of India on August 7, which now holds even more significance after Donald Trump’s tariff imposition, remainder of the June quarter earnings season and the beginning of the festive season in the country.
