The brokerage believes the telecom industry’s repair phase, marked by rising ARPUs, is likely to continue, led by recent improvements in tariff monetisation.
It expects ARPUs to grow in the mid-single digits even without any additional tariff hikes beyond 2026.The brokerage projects EBITDA growth in the high-single to low-double digit range for the mobile wireless business, and around 14% growth for the overall India business.
Morgan Stanley also believes India is currently in a sweet spot in the capex cycle.
On valuations, core India, excluding passive infrastructure, trades at a one-year forward EV to EBITDA multiple of 14x.
The brokerage expects premium multiples to sustain over the next 12 months as return ratios for the core business are likely to approach 20% by FY28.
