“Unless the conflict goes beyond June, there is now no downside to our numbers,” he said. Shah expects a part of the upside to come quickly once tensions ease, with further gains over time.
For the full interview, watch the accompanying video
He said near-term volatility could persist due to the impact of the Iran conflict on the March and June quarters. However, he pointed to multiple triggers for the rest of the year, including potential reforms, easing global tensions, and policy developments.
On structural themes, Shah highlighted energy security as a key focus for India. He said the country remains dependent on imports. “India imports about 90% of its crude requirements,” he said, adding that supply shocks can affect inflation, currency, and fiscal balance.
Also Read | Power emerges as top bet on AI boom, says Gautam Trivedi; stays away from ITHe said the current situation could act as a turning point for policy. “This is a wake-up call for India… it could be a multi-decade theme,” he said, referring to energy security.
Shah outlined key areas where India could focus, including biofuels, electrification, green hydrogen, and building strategic reserves. He said increasing ethanol blending and expanding power capacity could reduce dependence on imported fuels.
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He added that electrification will require large investments across the power value chain. This includes the generation, transmission, and equipment segments, which could benefit from higher spending.
Shah said investors should be selective across sectors, noting that while some segments have already seen price gains, long-term opportunities will depend on policy support and execution.
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