Brokerage firm Jefferies said in a note that all eyes today will be on the SEBI board meeting later today. It has laid out four scenarios for BSE based on a potential expiry move from weekly to fortnightly and monthly, and with and without same-day expiries. Here’s a look at all of those scenarios:
Fortnightly With Separate Day Expiry
In case the expiries are shifted to fortnightly and kept at separate days for both NSE and BSE, Jefferies believes that the industry index options notional Average Daily Turnover (ADTO) could fall by 55% and the Premium Average Daily Turnover could fall by 45%.Although Jefferies expects BSE’s market share to remain stable at 29% in August, its options revenue in financial year 2027 to fall by 38%, leading to a 22% fall in consolidated revenue and a 21% fall in net profit.
Fortnightly With Same Expiry
In case of this scenario, Jefferies expects the notional Average Daily Turnover to fall by 55% and the Premium ADTO to fall by 45%, same as the scenario highlighted earlier.
However, in such a scenario, BSE’s market share could fall to nearly 20%, according to Jefferies, which could impact the exchange’s options revenue to fall by 57% in financial year 2027.
This, in turn, could trigger a consolidated revenue hit of 33% and profit to drop by 35% in the next financial year, the Jefferies note said.
Monthly Expiry On Separate Days
In case of a monthly expiry on separate days, Jefferies expects the notional ADTO for the industry to fall by 80% and the Premium ADTO to decline 70%.Although BSE’s market share is likely to remain stable in such a scenario, its options revenue could fall by 67% in financial year 2027, which could impact revenue by 39% and profitability by 41%.
Monthly With Same Expiry
The Industry’s is a scenario.
However, BSE market share in such a scenario would fall to nearly 18%, leading to options revenue declining 80% in financial year 2027.
Such a move could impact BSE’s revenue by 46% and profit by 50% in financial year 2027, the Jefferies note said.
Since the reports first began to emerge, the shares of both BSE and Nuvama have corrected between 15% to 30% from their peak. Jefferies believes that in case scenario 1 plays out, that of a fortnightly expiry with separate days, most of that is in the price.
However, if scenarios 2 to 4 play out, then Jefferies expects the shares to fall further. BSE shares are trading at 38 times financial year 2027 price-to-earnings, which Jefferies believes is reasonable and therefore, does not see a material de-rating.
Shares of BSE ended 4.5% lower on Thursday at ₹2,164. The stock has declined 9% in the last one month.
