Wednesday, October 14, 2026

China’s arms sales challenge: Military expansion meets export decline

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China is expanding its military presence across Asia but its arms exports are shrinking.According to the December 2025 factsheet by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), top arms exporters of China witnessed a huge drop of 10% in revenues.

This comes even as arms export revenues of other countries in Asia such as South Korea and Japan, saw double-digit growth of 39% and 35%, respectively.
The contrast is clear. Whether it is the use of small arms or unmanned-aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Myanmar’s civil war, deployment of missiles, aircraft and naval vessels in the Taiwan Strait, or the use of UAVs in the India-Pakistan conflict, China has increased the use of its military equipment in regional clashes. Yet its exports are struggling to gain ground in the global market.More military activity has not led to stronger sales.

Norinco, Military Purges and the Trust Problem

Despite Beijing’s efforts to increase the use of its weapons, domestic defence companies such as China North Industries Group Corporation (Norinco) have not been able to improve export performance. A key reason is structural issues such as corruption.

“There is deep suspicion of being affiliated with that China camp of defense imports. Another major reason is with the revelations of the investigations and the purges against a bunch of the PLA and the Central Military Commission officials and commanders, you realise that suddenly, when one Tiger, as they say, is purged, everyone is linked to that tiger,” Akanksha Saxena, Staff Research Analyst, Indo-Pacific Studies Programme, The Takshashila Institute.

By Tiger, Saxena said she just means the big ones, the leadership, the leaders are the tigers, and those are the grassroots.

“So when one Tiger goes away, you see that they have a patron-client network, and you start unveiling this domino effect of persisting corruption across the supply chain. As a result, you’re seeing that the CEO of Norinco, which is one big Chinese state-owned enterprise responsible for land systems, has gone away. Naturally, a lot of things are coming under the radar. These technical issues and inefficiencies are then bound to have an impact on export numbers,” she added.

The military purges highlight the depth of internal disruption. In 2025 alone, 15 general officers were officially purged, while 46 went missing based on their absence from key events, according to data by the Center for Strategic and International Studies & China Power Project. The scale of the crackdown points to serious churn within the defence system.

For global buyers, stability matters. Arms deals run for years and involve long-term servicing and spare-part commitments. Leadership uncertainty and investigations can raise doubts about reliability and continuity.

Quality Concerns and Rising Competition

Concerns about corruption are not the only challenge. Questions also remain about the quality and performance of Chinese equipment.

“Arms exports from China have been seen to involve low-technology and performance issues. There are also concerns regarding spare-part supplies and less testing of Chinese arms and military equipment in recent years,” Atul Kumar, Fellow, Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), said

At the same time, other Asian countries are expanding their defence exports. South Korea’s Hanwha Group exports have climbed 42% to $8 billion as per the report.

South Korean systems usually meet North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) standards and often include flexible technology transfer options. In comparison, Chinese exports have faced concerns about maintenance and life-cycle support.

“The regional competition is also affecting China’s ability to attract buyers for its defence exports. Countries like South Korea and Türkiye are entering China’s export markets due to high technology and smoother tech transfers,” Kumar said.

South Korea and Türkiye have expanded into new regions, while China’s exports remain concentrated in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and some African nations.

As defence purchases become more advanced, buyers look for modern systems, easy integration and dependable after-sales support. Cost advantage alone is no longer enough.

Japan’s Position and Escalating Tensions

SIPRI data also showed that Japan’s arms revenue has risen to $10 billion, mainly driven by domestic demand. Export rules in Japan remain strict for political and policy reasons. The increase comes as Tokyo has taken a stronger stand on Taiwan under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

“While people in Japan have always, in general, kept supporting Taiwan. There has been strategic ambiguity before; now, PM Takaichi has taken a vocal stance on Taiwan against China,” Athena Tong, Research Associate and Programme Lead at China Strategic Risks Institute, said.

Since Tokyo’s statements against Beijing’s actions on Taiwan, ties between the two countries have worsened. At the Munich Security Conference, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi strongly criticised the Japanese Prime Minister’s remarks and said, “The Japanese leader’s erroneous remarks on the Taiwan question expose Japan’s unabated ambition to invade and colonise Taiwan and persistent intention to revive militarism.”

The Chinese Foreign Minister did not stop there, and went on to issue a warning to Japan, saying, “If it tries to turn back the clock of history, it will seal its own doom. If it gambles once more, it will only face a swifter defeat and suffer a more disastrous loss.”

The battle of words between Japan and China, which began in November last year, has turned into an intense rupture of ties. This, as Beijing conducted military drills around Taiwan as part of its Justice Mission from December 29-30 last year.

“The recent military drill by China around Taiwan was the sixth such drill since the then US Speaker of the House Of Representative Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022. However, the latest drill was a lot closer than the earlier ones and was used as a scare tactic to gauge responses of both Tokyo and Washington,” Tong said.

Both Japan and Taiwan source most of their weapons from the United States. According to SIPRI data for 2020-2024, around 97% of Japan’s arms imports come from the US, while Taiwan remains heavily reliant on Washington for almost all of its imports.

The data shows a clear gap. China’s military presence in the region is growing, but its position in the global arms market is under pressure. Defence exports depend on trust, steady institutions, reliable technology, and long-term support. As competition increases and internal turbulence continues, China faces a major test as military visibility may signal strength but only credibility will bring back buyers.

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