“In China, these food delivery companies, despite skyrocketing top line and volume growth, underperformed significantly simply because of one reason – an unbelievable degree of competition,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
Also Read: Blinkit grows bigger than Zomato this quarterHe added that India is currently a “benign oligopoly”, but if competition intensifies, it could challenge the market’s current optimism.
Valuations are another concern. While names like Zomato are trading at over 70 times forward earnings, comparable players in larger markets are much cheaper. “Think of an international investor sitting in London or New York… he can choose from Zomato or Swiggy at 60-70 times earnings, or companies like JD or Meituan trading at high teens,” Raychaudhuri said.
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However, he also acknowledged that the high valuations are partly a reflection of where these companies are in their life cycle. Indian players are still in the early stages, with strong growth attracting investor interest. In contrast, Chinese firms such as Meituan have already matured, and growth has moderated.
But a key question that investors should ask is: how far Indian platforms are from entering that slower-growth phase.Raychaudhuri’s caution was also echoed by Blume Ventures, which in a February 2025 report warned that India’s quick commerce boom may be nearing an inflection point. It flagged the risk of monthly transacting users plateauing, much like in ride-hailing and the rest of the e-commerce sectors. As growth slows outside major cities, these platforms may find it harder to sustain their current momentum, it said.
The report also pointed to growing competitive pressure from e-commerce giants like Amazon. While it noted that these larger players may not necessarily displace the quick commerce specialists, their entry is likely to shrink the industry’s profit pool.
Raychaudhuri remains constructive on India within emerging markets. He said India’s macro indicators are strong, with low inflation, improving fiscal and current account deficits, and a supportive policy environment.
But earnings have been disappointing. “The real enthusiasm for India will return once earnings estimates stop being cut and begin to rise again,” he said, adding that this could happen towards the end of the year as the impact of government spending and rate cuts plays out.
Earnings growth was expected to be at 17–18% in FY26 and FY27 but is now pegged at 14-15%, or even lower, he noted.
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