CRISIL projects India’s GDP growth to average 6.7% until 2031

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow at an average rate of 6.7% from 2025 to 2031, with manufacturing Gross Value Added (GVA) expected to expand at 9%, according to CRISIL’s annual outlook report, said Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL. This is a jump from the 6% growth seen in the last decade.For the upcoming financial year, 2025-26 (FY26), CRISIL has forecasted 6.5% GDP growth, despite global uncertainties. Several factors are expected to support this growth, including normal monsoons, lower food inflation, and an easier monetary policy.

Trade tensions and tariff barriers could create challenges for India’s economic growth, particularly in exports. The US is pushing for zero tariffs on Indian exports, which could impact trade relations and specific industries.Also Read | Geoffrey Dennis sees Trump’s policies as a risk to US equities

“I don’t think it is over, because if you look at what has been communicated so far, there are reciprocal tariffs, then there are non-tariff barriers. Yes, there seems to be a temporary reprieve right now, but let us wait for things to play out,” Joshi said.

Certain sectors are more vulnerable to potential changes in US trade policies. Textiles, auto components, gems and jewellery could face difficulties due to higher tariffs or trade restrictions. However, the pharma industry is less likely to be affected, given the strong demand for healthcare products in the US.

Also Read | Macquarie Capital says India’s FY25 earnings growth may be slower than market expectations

Miren Lodha, Senior Director at CRISIL Intelligence, stated, “In the case of pharma, the likelihood is lower given the focus on healthcare in the US, and also that any increase in cost has to be borne by the government.”

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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