The last time crude surged sharply was during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Brent crude jumped from $68 per barrel in December 2021 to about $139 by March 7, 2022. During that same period, the Nifty fell about 8%, slipping from 17,065 to 15,671.
But the correction did not last long.Crude oil prices and Nifty levels
|
|
Brent Crude ($/bbl) | Nifty 50 |
| 01-Dec-21 | 68 | 17065 |
| 31-Dec-21 | 78 | 17239 |
| 31-Jan-22 | 91 | 17264 |
| 07-Mar-22 | 139 | 15671 |
| 31-Mar-22 | 115 | 17435 |
| 03-Aug-22 | 102 | 17226 |
| 20-Mar-23 | 70 | 16828 |
| 05-Mar-25 | 68 | 22300 |
Even though crude remained elevated, the market recovered quickly. By March 31, 2022, when Brent was still around $115 per barrel, the Nifty had already climbed back to 17,435, recovering the losses triggered during the spike.Over the following year, oil prices gradually cooled. By March 2023, Brent had fallen back to around $70 per barrel, while the Nifty had regained almost all the ground it had lost during the crisis.
The longer-term picture is even more telling. It took nearly three years for crude to fall back to about $68 per barrel, roughly the same level seen before the war. But in that time, the Nifty moved much higher, rising to about 22,300 by March 2025, roughly 42% above its March 2022 level.
The pattern highlights an important point for investors. While crude spikes often trigger short-term volatility, the market tends to look through the shock once supply fears stabilise and economic activity remains intact.
In other words, oil may shake markets in the moment. But history shows the relationship between crude and equities is rarely a straight line
