Oil markets will be driven primarily by the direction of the US dollar and the health of the global economy, which he said has “very big weak spots,” particularly in China and Europe. Recent comments by US President Donald Trump, including those regarding Venezuela and Greenland, are unlikely to disrupt the crude markets materially.
Dennis said markets are looking beyond near-term geopolitical risk and instead focusing on the longer-term supply outlook. While US intervention carries significant uncertainty, oil prices have remained calm. Over time, he argued, increased Venezuelan output could even weigh on prices.
According to Dennis, rebuilding Venezuela’s damaged oil infrastructure would take several years, but could eventually lift production to 3–4 million barrels per day—an outcome he said would be bearish for crude. He also downplayed Trump’s claim that Venezuela would supply 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, calling it a “small amount” and part of a series of increasingly erratic statements.Also Read: Crude oil prices to stay under pressure in the first half of 2026 on supply overhang: Christof Ruehl
He is also similarly sceptical about Trump’s suggestion that the US could acquire Greenland on national security grounds. “I still think it’s extremely unlikely that this will happen,” he said, stating that a military takeover would effectively destroy the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. “I think that’s not something that probably even Trump would want to imagine.”
Instead, he described the Greenland rhetoric as strategic posturing aimed at securing access to rare earth minerals. “I think he’s sabre-rattling aggressively here, so he gets some sort of mineral deal,” Dennis said, adding that the likelihood of a military takeover was “pretty low, frankly, and much less than 38%.”
For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video
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