The target is the lowest among analysts and one of only four below the ₹10,000 mark.
The cautious stance comes against the backdrop of a sharp surge in Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) prices. DRAM spot prices as of February 13, 2026 were up 6.8x YoY.Average mobile DRAM prices so far in Q1CY26 for LPDDR4 and LPDDR5 have risen 55% and 64% QoQ, respectively.
According to TrendForce, mobile DRAM prices are expected to climb 88-93% in Q1CY26 and a further 20-25% in Q2CY26.
Morgan Stanley cited that nearly 75% of India’s smartphone market is priced below $300, making it particularly sensitive to component cost inflation.
The brokerage said higher DRAM prices could pose an incremental headwind for an industry that is already witnessing muted demand trends.Last week, CLSA downgraded the stock to ‘Hold’ from ‘Outperform’ and cut its price target by 23% to ₹12,100 from ₹15,800 earlier.
CLSA said the memory industry is entering a super cycle, driven by AI-led demand for high-bandwidth memory and DDR5, while supply of mainstream memory remains tight.
India’s dependence on imports leaves it exposed to the global supply squeeze, especially as manufacturers prioritise high-margin AI-grade memory.
Memory prices have already surged, with DDR5 and DDR4 contract rates rising 119% and 63% month-on-month in January, while NAND contract prices increased 37-67%.
CLSA warned that smartphone volumes could come under pressure as rising memory costs may push up average selling prices by 10-25%, disproportionately affecting lower-end consumers.
The brokerage flagged risks to demand in the budget segment and raised concerns over medium-term growth visibility.
Of the 33 analysts tracking Dixon Technologies, 25 have a ‘Buy’ rating, three recommend ‘Hold’, and five have a ‘Sell’ call.
The stock is currently trading 3.27% lower at ₹10,710 and is down 12% so far this year.
