Englander expects the dollar index to stay relatively range-bound in the near term, with no major upward or downward shifts. Much of the market’s focus will remain on the Fed’s next moves.
StanChart expects one rate cut this year, but does not rule out two cuts, even a 50-basis-point cut in September, depending on incoming data. Despite that, Englander does not foresee a prolonged easing cycle, stating that markets are a little pessimistic in pricing continuous cuts.
On the broader economy, Englander said the US is clearly slowing but not deteriorating sharply. Strong corporate earnings and rising productivity are offsetting job growth concerns. “It’s not going to be a 3% economy,” he said, but there’s no imminent risk of recession either.
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US data points to slowdown, not recession: Raymond James strategist
Globally, he believes much of the 2025 growth has already been front-loaded. Countries rushed exports to the US ahead of new tariff walls, which may now cause trade and export activity to cool down in the second half.
Still, Englander doesn’t expect the steep US tariff hikes to end the ongoing bull run. Solid earnings and some short-term fiscal stimulus should keep the momentum going.
Also Read: Rupee may slip to 87-88 vs dollar as US tariffs bite: ICICI Securities economist
As for India, Englander feels geopolitical concerns like trade ties with Russia are unlikely to shake long-term foreign investor sentiment. “There’s no upside to the US for not getting deals,” he remarked, suggesting global political noise tends to fade as market fundamentals take over.
For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video
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