Around 6:50 AM New York time, the S&P 500 e-Mini futures, trading on the CME, saw a sharp jump in volumes, which is an unusual pattern during an otherwise subdued pre-market activity that happens on thin liquidity.
A similar pattern was also noted in the oil market. The May futures of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also saw a pick-up in trading volumes around the similar time as those on the S&P 500. A tall volume tower emerged amidst bars that otherwise resembled a flat ECG line.Minutes later, at 7:05 AM New York time, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US and Iran have held talks over the last two days and based on those, he has instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and Energy infrastructure.
The post sent markets into a tizzy with the Dow futures jumping as much as 1,200 points, the S&P 500 also surging 2.5% and on the flip side, oil prices fell as much as 14%.However, with normal trading resuming and Iran denying any such talks, half of those gains were pared. The Dow ended just over 600 points higher, while oil prices also pared most of those losses, but Brent ended below the mark of $100 for the first time in nearly two weeks.
Analysts too are trying to read between the lines before going all out and declaring that things have returned to normal. Krishna Guha of Evercore said that it is impossible to tell whether this is genuine progress or an off-ramp for the war. However, he continues to bet on the fact that the chances of a rate cut are still higher compared to a rate hike.
Citadel Securities said that conditions for a rally are high if geopolitical tensions ease considering the S&P 500 has one of the largest short positions on record currently.
A unit of Morgan Stanley also wrote that any further relief will require a tangible follow-through on the geopolitical front.
(With Inputs From Agencies)
