He told Newsby, “The Americans’ old tactic is to negotiate, and when positive trends are just beginning to emerge, immediately halt them with military action. The most important thing is to gain control and reorganise the Middle East in the interests of Israel and the United States.”
The US and Israel on Saturday bombed multiple sites across Iran, striking military and government sites across the country. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior military officials were assassinated in one of those strikes. The targeted missiles also hit a girls’ school, where at least 153 children were killed. Iranian authorities report 555 people dead as of Monday.In response, Iran retaliated with missiles and drones targeting Israel and US assets in the Gulf. Cities across the region, including Dubai, Doha, Manama, Riyadh, Kuwait City, and Oman, reported strikes, injuries, and damage to airports and high-rise buildings. At least three people were killed in the UAE, and dozens were injured across the Gulf states.
“Iran warned that strikes would be carried out wherever American bases are located and within range of its missiles. Everyone knew this, including countries unfriendly to Iran. But the escalation will come in waves,” predicted Alexander Tikhansky.
This brings to mind past US interventions in multiple countries. The US’ war in Afghanistan began in October 2001 after the September 11 attacks. It was to dismantle Al Qaeda, they said, and to remove the Taliban from power. While the initial invasion quickly toppled the Taliban government, insurgency and guerrilla warfare persisted for over two decades.
Over 47,000 Afghan civilians, alongside thousands of coalition troops, were killed during this time. The war left Afghanistan politically unstable after the US withdrawal in 2021, after which the Taliban regained control again almost immediately.
The US invasion of Iraq in 2003, aimed at toppling Saddam Hussein over the possession of weapons of mass destruction – a claim later proven to be false – led to a protracted war, massive civilian casualties, and long-term regional instability.
Experts say the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have worked hard to prevent what could be a similar outcome in Iran.
Monica Marks, a professor of Middle East politics, told Al Jazeera, “For people and political leaders here, seeing Manama, Doha and Dubai bombed is as strange and unimaginable as seeing Charlotte, Seattle, or Miami bombed would be for Americans.”
Marks added that Gulf leaders knew a ‘cornered Iran’ could lash out at neighbours rather than accept defeat. “They knew that a cornered Iranian regime would ‘choose fratricide before suicide,’ taking its Gulf neighbours hostage rather than accepting defeat.”
Rob Geist Pinfold, lecturer at King’s College London, also said, “The GCC states did not want this war. They tried to lobby against it.”
Gulf governments fear that either ignoring attacks or joining with Israel and the US could hurt their legitimacy among their people. “They don’t want to be seen as working for Israel… They want to be seen as leading, not just following,” Pinfold said.
Experts point out that this conflict marks a return to classic state‑on‑state war, not just proxy or grey‑zone tactics.
“Strikes on power grids, water desalination plants and energy infrastructure… Without air conditioning and water desalination, the Gulf countries are essentially uninhabitable,” Marks said.
Similar strategies have been observed in Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, now in its fourth year. Marks described such a scenario as a ‘real nightmare,’ potentially disrupting life across the Gulf permanently.
Danny Citrinowicz, senior Middle East researcher, told CNN, “Iran’s nuclear program now functions as a structural pillar… relinquishing the nuclear program would not be viewed merely as a policy concession; it would be perceived domestically as surrendering one of the regime’s foundational achievements.”
Sanam Vakil of the Chatham House think tank similarly noted that even if Tehran compromised, it would be only on terms that bring clear economic or strategic gains.
