Explainer: What’s at stake for India as US pulls back Chabahar waiver

The US decision to revoke India’s sanctions waiver for Iran’s Chabahar Port, effective September 29, is more than a routine sanctions move. It directly affects India’s regional outreach and diplomatic balancing. Here’s why.

India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia

For India, Chabahar has been the only reliable gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia that does not depend on Pakistan. Since Islamabad has consistently denied India transit rights, the port became vital for sending goods, aid, and investments westward.Any new restrictions could choke this corridor, leaving India with far fewer tools to maintain influence in Afghanistan or tap into Central Asian markets.

Strategic competition in the region

Chabahar has been seen as India’s answer to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, which China operates. With sanctions risk now hanging over the Indian project, analysts warn that Beijing’s position in the region could strengthen.

A weakened Chabahar may leave Gwadar, and by extension China, as the uncontested hub for regional connectivity.

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Balancing between Washington and Tehran

The waiver had allowed India to maintain a delicate balance: deepening its strategic and security partnership with the US, while also keeping ties with Iran intact.With the carve-out gone, New Delhi will find it harder to reassure Tehran of long-term commitment without risking friction with Washington. How India manages this triangle will determine whether it can continue investing in Chabahar or has to slow down its involvement.

Humanitarian and development commitments

New Delhi has used Chabahar repeatedly to ship wheat, medicines, and other essential supplies to Afghanistan, especially after the Taliban takeover. The port has also been linked to reconstruction projects in the war-torn country.

If sanctions deter shipping companies, banks, or insurers, India’s ability to continue this humanitarian outreach will be compromised, weakening one of its strongest diplomatic levers in Kabul.

In sum, India’s access to Afghanistan, its humanitarian outreach, and its broader strategy to balance Iran and counter China are all at stake.

The revocation of the waiver does not just complicate port operations. It also reshapes the geopolitical map India has been trying to draw for two decades.

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