Friday, November 13, 2026

Factors driving gold rates higher ahead of US inflation data

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Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday (August 12), recovering some ground after Monday’s (August 11’s) steep drop, as investors positioned themselves ahead of US inflation numbers that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate move.Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,350.03 per ounce as of 0146 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery held steady at $3,402.80 an ounce.

In India, 24-karat gold traded at ₹1.01 lakh per 10 grams, while 22-karat stood at ₹92,950 per 10 grams, according to Goodreturns.

The rebound comes after gold slid 1.6% in the previous session, with futures falling more than 2%, following US President Donald Trump’s assurance that imported gold bars would not face tariffs. This announcement eased earlier market jitters, triggering a wave of profit-taking.
Traders are now focused on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due later on Tuesday (August 12), which is expected to show a 0.3% monthly rise in core inflation for July.A softer reading could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating an 85% probability of such a move. Lower rates tend to boost gold’s appeal by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, said that demand for bullion remains supported by uncertainty around trade tariffs and rate-cut expectations. He added that gold has support at ₹99,850–₹99,450 per 10 grams and resistance at ₹1,00,750–₹1,00,980 per 10 grams.

Market sentiment is also being shaped by geopolitical developments, including a planned meeting between the US and Russian presidents this week to discuss the Ukraine war, which could influence safe-haven demand.

If US inflation data eases, gold may find additional upward momentum in the short term, analysts say. However, stronger-than-expected numbers could push yields higher and limit gains.

–With Reuters inputs

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