Concerns over US “monitoring” clause
Sajjanhar said the clause that allows the United States to “monitor” India’s compliance is significant, as it keeps open the possibility of renewed tariff action in the future. He suggested that such language could be seen in India as an external oversight mechanism rather than a purely bilateral understanding.He noted that this could complicate India’s energy diplomacy, particularly its engagement with Russia, even as New Delhi has already reduced its dependence on Russian crude over the past year.
Domestic political context
The former diplomat observed that the provision may also have domestic political ramifications, with opposition parties likely to frame it as a challenge to India’s strategic autonomy. He said this could make it harder for the government to build consensus around the trade deal at home.Broader India–US ties
Placing the issue in a wider context, Sajjanhar said that India–US relations had experienced several points of friction in recent months, including differences over regional geopolitics and trade.
While he acknowledged that defence cooperation and other aspects of the partnership were continuing to move forward, he suggested that the Russian oil clause could slow efforts to rebuild trust following the earlier tariff dispute.
Sajjanhar pointed out that there are no UN sanctions on Russian oil and that India has adhered to the G7 price cap mechanism. He also noted that several countries — including China, parts of the European Union, and the United States itself — continue to import Russian energy without facing similar conditionalities.
Trade deal context
Under the interim trade framework, the US will reduce tariffs on Indian goods to 18% after the agreement is formally signed. In return, India has agreed to lower duties on a range of US industrial and agricultural products and address non-tariff barriers in sectors such as medical devices and information and communication technology.
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