GAIL shares have multiple worries ahead, Kotak warns projecting 14% downside

Shares of GAIL (India) Ltd. opened lower on Friday, February 27, after brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities reiterated its ‘Sell’ rating on the stock with a price target of ₹145 per share.The brokerage said that with Henry Hub (HH) gas settlement prices rising in February and several customers opting for lower offtake under take-or-pay contracts, GAIL has further cut its marketing PBT guidance to ₹3,500 crore for FY26/27E.

This compares with its earlier guidance of ₹4,000 crore and the ₹5,000-5,500 crore range indicated in early 2025.
Kotak said that if GAIL were to shut down its cash loss-making petrochemicals business, marketing earnings could weaken further.The brokerage also said that beyond the INGPL tariff revision effective January 2026, there are limited near-term catalysts for the stock. Elevated capital expenditure remains another area of concern.

Additionally, GAIL’s plan to set up two gas-based fertiliser plants has added to investor worries around capital allocation and returns.

Of the 33 analysts tracking the stock, 24 have a ‘Buy’ rating, seven recommend ‘Hold’, and two have a ‘Sell’ call.

Shares of GAIL ended marginally higher by 0.01% at ₹170.02 on Thursday. The stock is down around 1% so far in 2026.