Gold Tariff U-Turn Cools Market Fear
The initial surge in gold prices, which peaked at $3,534 per ounce, was driven by fears of tariffs on precious metals. However, a tweet from US President Trump confirming that gold will not be tariffed helped ease those concerns and caused a market correction. “President Trump quelled that, and then we saw a reversal as far as price goes,” McGuire said, noting that prices have since settled near $3,400 per ounce.US Dollar Weakness to Boost Precious Metals
McGuire believes that the US dollar will come under continued pressure, especially with a widely expected rate cut in September and market events such as Jackson Hole on the horizon. A weaker dollar typically benefits precious metals, and McGuire expects both gold and silver investors to increase long positions heading into the final quarter of 2025.
Silver Poised for Even Greater Gains
Silver’s outlook appears even more promising than gold’s. Currently hovering around $38, silver has shown significant volatility, which McGuire says presents trading opportunities. “From a percentage perspective, I think that’ll be greater than gold over the calendar year of 2025,” he noted, adding that silver could touch above $40 before year-end.Volatility Likely Followed by Consolidation
When asked about historical patterns of volatility followed by extended consolidation periods, McGuire was cautious. “That’s a hard one, because that’s a long vision,” he said. While he expects the gold bull market to continue into 2026, many variables remain uncertain. He advised watching this year’s price movements closely before drawing longer-term conclusions.
Crude Oil Prices Expected to Decline Further
Turning to energy markets, McGuire expects crude oil prices to decline in the coming months despite a recent short-term rebound. He pointed to easing geopolitical tensions, including the US decision to hold off sanctions on Russia pending talks, as well as a market glut. “I still believe crude prices will go lower from where we are at the moment, over Q3 and certainly into Q4,” he said.
Inflation Easing Supports Cheaper Energy Outlook
With inflation rates easing in several countries, McGuire highlighted the positive impact on consumers and businesses alike. “Inflation’s looking better in a lot of countries. It’s edging lower, so that’s a good sign, and that’s going to be better for the consumer, as far as more dollars in the wallet,” he said. Lower inflation and cheaper energy prices could ease overall costs and support a more manageable economic environment going forward.
Watch the accompanying video for entire conversation.
