The gains followed a sharp widening of the US–Iran conflict after a US submarine reportedly sank an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka and NATO air defences intercepted a ballistic missile fired towards Turkey. The escalation has heightened concerns over a broader regional conflict and possible disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bullion, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset, has risen about 20% so far this year and has repeatedly hit record highs amid political and economic uncertainty.Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Investments Limited, said the broad outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supportive fundamentals. “We expect gold to recover further. Silver, however, may experience choppy trading as speculative transactions dominate. Overall, we remain bullish on gold, while silver may show a mild positive bias,” he said.
In India, gold traded above ₹1.63 lakh per 10 grams
on Wednesday (March 4), with spot prices touching around ₹1.70 lakh, while silver rose 2.81%. Aamir Makda, Commodity and Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, described the move as a “classic flight-to-safety response”.“With the intensification of US-Iran hostilities, investors are prioritising wealth preservation over speculative gains,” Makda said, adding that Indian equity markets have declined more than 3% this week, increasing safe-haven risk premiums in bullion. He expects a moderately bullish trend in bullion in the near term.
Market participants are also tracking US monetary policy signals. US President Donald Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the central bank. However, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting.
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity and CRM at Ventura, described the current gold trade as a “tug-of-war” between safe-haven demand and macro headwinds.
“Gold is benefiting from fear of geopolitical tensions but suffering from the economic ramifications of that same fear,” he said. Rising crude oil prices due to supply disruption concerns could stoke inflation and push real yields higher, which typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold. At the same time, elevated US fiscal deficits and continued central bank reserve accumulation provide structural support, he added.
Ramaswamy said investors should closely watch US 10-year bond yields and the dollar index, as both remain critical to bullion’s direction.
–With Reuters inputs
