Gold, silver turn risk assets; PACE 360’s Amit Goel sees rally before crash

Amit Goel, Co-Founder and Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, believes gold and silver are no longer the safe havens investors once relied on, arguing that both metals have effectively turned into risk assets — setting the stage for a potential bubble and eventual sharp decline.Goel said this shift in character is central to understanding their future trajectory. “What is everybody’s safe haven is not a safe haven anymore. It becomes an ultimate risk asset and finally a bubble,” he said, adding that gold and silver have already been behaving like risk assets for several months.

Despite this structural bearish view, Goel is tactically bullish in the near term. His firm has been aggressively buying both metals with a short investment horizon of one to two months. “We started buying gold and silver about three days back, and yesterday we bought very, very aggressively, not with a long-term horizon but with a one-to-two-month horizon,” he said.
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He expects this short-term rally to be driven by easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, which could calm inflation and bond yield concerns. In such a scenario, risk assets — including equities, industrial metals, and precious metals — are likely to move higher, while the US dollar weakens.

Goel outlined specific upside targets during this window. Gold, currently around $4,400 per ounce, could climb towards $5,000, while silver — being a higher beta commodity — may rise from about $69.5 to the $85–$86 range, where he expects resistance to emerge.Also Read: Shining but sitting idle: India’s $5 trillion household gold story

This rally, he added, would coincide with a decline in the Dollar Index from recent levels near 100.50 to around 97–98 over the next two months, creating what he describes as a short-term “Goldilocks scenario” for global markets, including the US and India.

However, Goel cautioned that this upside should not be mistaken for the start of a sustained bull run. He remains “absolutely steadfast” in his view that gold and silver will head significantly lower over the next 12-18 months. “We are nowhere close to the long-term bottoms,” he said.

His longer-term bearish outlook is rooted in macroeconomic expectations. Goel anticipates a US recession within the next 12 months, followed by a broader deflationary downturn globally over the next one to one-and-a-half years. Once the short-term rally fades, he expects these fundamentals to take over, dragging precious metals sharply lower.

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