CLSA said its detailed review of the company’s prospects points to orders worth $33 billion over FY25-30, even after HAL was excluded from India’s fifth-generation fighter development programme.
The brokerage expects repeat helicopter orders and the recently cleared Super Sukhoi upgrade programme to fully offset the impact of the exclusion.It said that HAL has been left out only of AMCA 1.0 and will remain eligible to bid at the mass production stage.
HAL’s order backlog rose 88% year-on-year in FY25 and is forecast to reach $28 billion by FY27. The recent government approval for a $3.6 billion helicopter order improves visibility, with execution likely to begin as early as FY27.
CLSA said HAL has the strongest order pipeline in the sector, with nearly 14 years of revenue visibility, making it its preferred defence pick.The brokerage sees the start of Mk1A fighter jet deliveries in Q2 2026, clarity on GE engine supplies, and the GE 414 Make-in-India production agreement as key catalysts.
Despite its leadership position, CLSA said HAL remains the cheapest pure-play defence stock in the space.
Jyoti Gupta of Nirmal Bang said that although HAL has corrected nearly 30% from its recent peak, the medium-term outlook remains positive, with performance expected to improve after a few quarters of stronger execution.
“I would actually look at HAL for the next three quarters to see how they perform,” she said, adding that the second half of FY27 could be particularly strong for the company.
Of the 25 analysts covering HAL, 21 have a ‘Buy’ rating, one recommends ‘Hold’, and three have a ‘Sell’ call.
HAL shares were trading 0.80% higher at ₹3,984.10. The stock is down 8% over the past month.
