The brokerage has also downgraded its rating on BPCL to “neutral” from “buy”, and cut its price target by 22% to ₹340 from ₹435 earlier.
Goldman Sachs has also downgraded Indian Oil Corporation to “sell” from its earlier rating of “neutral” and cut its price target by 24% to ₹110 from ₹145 earlier.
| Stock | Rating | Target (₹) |
| HPCL | Neutral From Buy | 310 From 480 |
| BPCL | Neutral From Buy | 340 From 435 |
| Indian Oil | Sell From Neutral | 110 From 145 |
While HPCL’s shares are nearly at the same price as Goldman Sachs’ revised price target, BPCL’s target implies an upside of 25%, while Indian Oil’s slashed price target indicates a downside potential of another 20% from current levels.The brokerage wrote in its note that the risk-reward for India’s OMCs has turned less compelling as marketing margins of these companies are negatively co-related to oil prices, due to the limited pass through of higher crude and product prices at the gas stations.
Goldman Sachs also said that the risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside, both in the near-term and in 2027 and also expects oil prices may stay above $100 a barrel for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply issues.
The financial year 2027 and 2028 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) estimates for these OMCs are 19% and 4% below Bloomberg consensus estimates respectively, Goldman Sachs wrote in its note.
Shares of HPCL, BPCL and IOC have all corrected between 25% to 30% during the month of March, marking their worst months in over a decade.
