The recent US sanctions, targeting major Russian oil exporters and its shadow tanker fleet, have led to short-term disruptions.
Read more: Oil holds losses as Donald Trump flags Russian talks to end Ukraine war “New deceptive shipping practices to sustain these lucrative exports and collateral disruptions for global shipping could undermine these efforts,” the IEA observed.
The agency slashed its projection for the global oil surplus in 2025, reducing it by over 50% in two months to 450,000 bpd. The revision follows stronger-than-expected demand growth in Asia, particularly in India, while China – though still the largest driver – has seen signs that its fuel consumption “may even have passed its peak.”IEA also highlighted the geopolitical tensions influencing market stability. The former Biden administration imposed severe sanctions on Russia’s energy sector in early January, blacklisting major producers such as Gazprom Neft PJSC and Surgutneftegas PJSC. On the other hand, President Donald Trump’s recent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, described as “highly productive,” has raised speculations over potential shifts in US policy.
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Concerns over supply constraints have supported oil prices, with Brent crude exceeding $80 per barrel in January before retreating below $75 following Trump’s latest trade tariffs.
The IEA has reduced its forecast for POEC+ production by 170,000 bpd, noting that restrictions on Russia and Iran remain a key factor.
“Time and again, oil markets have shown remarkable resilience and adaptability in the face of major challenges – and this time is unlikely to be different,” the agency stated despite the ongoing challenges.
(With inputs from Bloomberg)
