India’s growth indicators have remained steady despite rising crude prices and global uncertainty, with recent data pointing to resilience in consumption and demand.According to Abhishek Upadhyay, Senior Economist, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, high-frequency indicators suggest the economy entered the current phase on a stable footing. “I would say it paints a mixed picture, but overall would still term it quite resilient,” he said, citing strong auto sales, goods and services tax (GST) collections and credit growth.Data for the January–March quarter came in line with expectations, with growth estimated at around 7.4–7.5%. Sakshi Gupta, Vice President & Senior Economist, HDFC Bank, said some indicators performed better than expected despite elevated crude prices.
“Some of the indicators have performed better… the absorptive capacity of the system seems to be better positioned,” she noted.For the full interview, watch the accompanying videoApril data also surprised on the upside, particularly in consumption trends. Lalit Bhise, Co-Founder and CEO, BIZOM, said fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) consumption grew 6.3% year-on-year, led by rural demand. “It was quite a pleasant surprise… negating the effects of war at least in the short term,” he said.
Auto sales, tractor sales and two-wheeler volumes also reported strong growth, indicating demand strength across segments. Rural demand remained a key driver, while urban consumption showed slower growth.Also Read | Rajiv Memani sees post-election momentum driving investments, urges faster reform executionHowever, economists flagged emerging risks. External sector indicators such as non-oil exports have started to weaken, with March data showing a 9% decline. Rising fuel costs and higher diesel prices are expected to impact industrial activity and logistics demand.Upadhyay said the extent of the growth impact will depend on how higher oil prices are absorbed across the economy. “If most of the shock is absorbed… we will not see as much impact on growth,” he said, while cautioning that this could raise fiscal pressures and interest rates.Inflation is also expected to rise, with estimates suggesting a move towards 4.7–4.8% for the year, driven by fuel and food prices. Economists expect retail fuel price hikes to follow, which could weigh on consumption.Also Read | India’s tax collections grow just 5% in FY26, beat target but show clear slowdownGrowth projections remain cautious. Estimates suggest gross domestic product (GDP) growth of around 6.8% under current oil price assumptions, with downside risks if crude remains elevated. For the first quarter, growth is seen closer to 6.5%.Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here
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