The global economy has been subjected to a relentless succession of shocks over the past five to six years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Principal Secretary and former RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, warning that uncertainties and geopolitical conflicts have now become the “new normal”.Das said pandemic-induced disruptions were followed by the Ukraine war, monetary tightening and tariff barriers, while supply chain disruptions and conflicts in West Asia have added to global uncertainty. The net outcome is reflected in slower global growth, rising inflationary pressures and heightened financial market volatility.
According to IMF projections cited by Das, global growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025, and could fall further to 2-2.5% under extremely adverse scenarios. Global inflation may rise to 5.4-6% under such conditions, with a West Asia supply shock posing a serious threat. Even if conflicts end immediately, supply disruptions and infrastructure damage could impose long-term costs, with risks to energy supply, fertiliser availability and food security.
Amid this backdrop, Das said India stands out as a “clear outlier of resilience and renewal”. The Indian economy clocked an average annual GDP growth of 7.4% between FY23-FY26, remaining the fastest-growing major economy during the period. Growth has been anchored in macroeconomic stability, prudent fiscal consolidation and strong domestic demand, without overleveraging or overspending.He added that the government’s fiscal position remains stable with a focus on capex, while the banking sector is on a much stronger footing after years of balance sheet repair and tighter supervision, leading to reduced NPAs and improved governance.Das said India’s vision for 2047 will be driven by enterprise, technology and inclusive growth, even as global disruptions continue to reshape trade flows, supply chains and the overall growth outlook.
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