The mini deal is expected to include some tariff reductions on both sides, particularly rolling back parts of the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US earlier.
Agriculture is also likely to feature in the deal, although Linscott noted that the most sensitive categories, like dairy and wheat, may be excluded. “I think there will be some agricultural commodities that are included, even if it is not dairy and wheat,” he said.
Sources told CNBC-TV18 that India has held firm on its red lines and has not offered concessions on core sectors like dairy, wheat, maize and rice. Instead, India’s proposal seeks to secure access for its labour-intensive sectors such as textiles and leather, with average tariffs expected to hover around 10%.Linscott stressed that the chances of a deal being struck soon are high. “There is quite a bit of buzz this morning. So, I remain bullish that we will see a deal in the next day or so if not in the next minutes or hours,” he said.
He acknowledged that the final call rests with President Donald Trump, who has previously derailed deals at the last minute. “That is always a bit of a wildcard,” Linscott remarked, recalling a similar deal that fell through in 2020 when Trump deemed it not “big enough.”
Intensive negotiations have taken place in recent weeks as both sides seek to declare victory from the deal. For the US, this could be a political win ahead of election season, while for India, it is a chance to improve market access and ease trade tensions.
The White House has already pushed back the implementation of new reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1, keeping the window open for talks. President Trump has also promised to send out letters related to trade and tariffs this week, with only the UK and Vietnam having seen deals so far.
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