Musk was quoting data by media outlet AF Post which said on the social media site that India’s fertility rate has fallen below replacement for the first time in the country’s history, “declining from a TFR (Total Fertility Rate) of 2.3 to 1.9 in just a decade. Delhi’s fertility rate now sits at 1.2, lower than Finland’s.”
AF Post cited a June 4 article from The Economist titled ‘India’s population will soon be falling—probably quite fast.’Last year, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report said that India’s total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1, which means that on average, Indian women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next, without migration.
India’s current population is over 1.46 billion and the country surpassed China in 2023 to become the world’s most populous nation.
“Although its fertility rate has declined over the years, India has a population of well over a billion, and wide inequalities persist, despite significant improvements in health and education. Maternal mortality and gender discrimination remain high. Early marriage and pregnancy contribute to excessive maternal death among women under the age of 24,” according to information on the UNFPA website.
