India’s most uneven monsoon in a decade puts crop yields, rabi sowing at risk

India’s monsoon story this year is becoming less about whether farmers managed to sow their fields and more about whether those crops can survive what comes next.Rainfall deficiency has widened to 14% so far this season, with September also expected to see below-normal rainfall. Yet sowing has held up surprisingly well, leaving crop yields, rather than acreage, as the immediate concern, according to a Crisil report.Crisil’s Rainfall Distortion Index (RDI) puts the distortion at 14.4, making 2026 the “most spatially distorted monsoon in a decade”. The unevenness has been particularly pronounced across major agricultural regions, with rainfall 27% below normal in the south peninsula and 24% below normal in the east and northeast as of September 7. Why has the monsoon not hit acreage as hard?Despite the erratic rainfall, farmers have adapted their sowing decisions to local conditions, intermittent rainfall and state advisories.Overall sowing stood at 98% of normal acreage and 96% of last year’s level as of September 4. Rice, tur, maize, groundnut and sugarcane have already crossed normal sowing levels, while progress remains weaker for crops such as cotton, bajra, jowar, moong, urad and soybean.Groundnut offers a good example of that adaptation. After sowing was initially 42% below last year’s level in June, improved rainfall in Gujarat during July and August helped acreage recover and eventually surpass last year’s level.Crisil says this means the first link in the chain from weak rainfall to agricultural stress — lower sowing — “has been weaker than expected”. So, where has the risk shifted?The bigger question now is yields.Crops with limited irrigation support remain particularly exposed if rainfall stays weak. Crisil’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter (DRIP) highlights vulnerabilities in cotton, bajra, maize, tur, groundnut and soybean.The report points out that even where sowing has remained relatively strong, irrigation coverage can vary significantly across states. Groundnut, for instance, has seen favourable sowing in Gujarat, but only 49.3% of its crop area was irrigated in 2024-25, while rainfall weakened sharply in parts of the state towards the end of August and in September.In simple terms, the fields have been planted — but that does not necessarily mean the harvest is safe.Crisil expects a moderate impact on kharif crop incomes, although it believes a similar-sized hit to rural demand is less likely for now. Can rural India absorb another weak monsoon?There are reasons for some optimism.Rural households are less dependent on crop income than they were in the past, with livestock, fisheries and forestry now accounting for more than 40% of agriculture and allied-sector output. Irrigation coverage has also risen to around 60% of net sown area in 2024-25, from 48.8% in 2015-16.Four consecutive years of favourable monsoons, healthy crop output, relatively low inflation and government support schemes have also strengthened rural household finances.Crisil notes that a single weak monsoon “need not undo the resilience rural India has built over recent years”.Policy support is another cushion. Cash-transfer schemes operate across 17 states, while PM-KISAN provides eligible farmers ₹6,000 a year through direct benefit transfers. Foodgrain support and GST reductions on mass-consumption items could also help households absorb some of the pressure.That is why Crisil expects rural consumption to hold up better than crop incomes. Could the rabi crop be the bigger worry?This is where the outlook becomes more uncertain.The southwest monsoon does more than determine kharif output. Its rainfall replenishes soil moisture, groundwater, reservoirs and irrigation resources that are crucial for the rabi season.And early indicators are beginning to flash warning signs.Nearly 45% of districts had deficient rainfall as of September 7, compared with 20-30% in each of the previous four years. August temperatures were also the highest for the month since 1901, while the India Meteorological Department expects above-normal temperatures to persist through September.The Combined Drought Index developed by IIT Gandhinagar showed the area experiencing drought rising to 42% as of September 2, from 35.1% at the end of July.Reservoir levels offer some protection, but even here there are disparities. As of September 3, storage in 178 major reservoirs was 3% below the long-period average and 18% below last year’s level. Levels were particularly low in some important rabi-producing states, including Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka.The stakes are high because the rabi crop accounts for roughly half of India’s foodgrain production, with wheat alone contributing around 70% of rabi output. What could this mean for rural demand and food prices?For now, Crisil sees rural India as capable of absorbing the shock. But that cushion is not unlimited.The report warns that if rainfall deficiencies deepen, weather anomalies persist and the stress spills into the winter cropping season, the pressure could spread from farm incomes to rural demand, food prices and agricultural growth.September therefore becomes an important test.Crisil says “the bigger test, however, lies ahead”, with the remainder of the monsoon crucial not only for this year’s harvest but also for the resilience that rural India has built against weather shocks.A weak monsoon may no longer automatically translate into a weak sowing season. But if rainfall remains deficient, the next battleground could be the yield — and then the rabi crop that follows.

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