India’s economy is expected to grow 7.4% in the July–September quarter, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll ahead of the November 28 gross domestic product (GDP) release. The strong real GDP number partly reflects a low base, with the same quarter last year growing 5.6%, and is slightly below the 7.8% recorded in April-June.
The 7.4% estimate refers to real GDP, which excludes the impact of prices and reflects actual growth in goods and services. With price effects included, nominal GDP is projected to grow only 8%, below 8.3% a year ago, 8.8% in the first quarter, and well below the Union Budget assumption of 10.8%. The muted nominal figure is a concern because it drives fiscal planning and corporate earnings forecasts.
Broad-based growth across sectorsThe CNBC-TV18 poll shows all major sectors are set to contribute to the 7.4% real GDP print:
Agriculture: expected growth of 3.5%, considered strong for the sector
Manufacturing: projected to grow 8.9%, helped by front-loaded exports and strong government capex
Services: likely to expand 8.1%, led by finance, real estate, trade and related segments
Economists also shared early projections for upcoming quarters. The third-quarter GDP is expected to grow 6.7%, while the fourth-quarter number is seen at 6.3%. Both quarters carry a high base, especially quarter four, and forecasters said these numbers may change once the quarter two data is released.Full-year growth seen above 7%Averaging the estimates, full-year 2025-26 (FY26) growth now stands at 7.02%. This exceeds the Economic Survey’s earlier projection range of 6.3–6.8%. Economists now believe growth could remain above 7% for the year.Nominal GDP remains the key riskWhile real GDP trends are encouraging, the concern lies in the muted 8% nominal GDP projection. Nominal growth feeds directly into:
Government revenue estimates
Corporate earnings forecasts
Fiscal deficit calculations
If nominal GDP remains low, it could lead to softer earnings growth for companies.For more, watch the accompanying videoCatch all the latest updates from the stock market here
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