The visit coincides with intense efforts to finalise at least an initial phase of a bilateral trade agreement in the coming months, part of a larger goal to boost trade to $500 billion by 2030, up from roughly $200 billion currently. Negotiators are actively engaged, but complex issues persist, particularly around tariffs and market access.
Kanwal Sibal, former Foreign Secretary and Chancellor at JNU emphasised the complexity of this task. “Now, focusing only on tariffs and pushing India much harder than necessary—especially in the agricultural area—these are very sensitive issues and must be treated accordingly,” he said, cautioning against any zero-sum mindset. While Vance is not directly in charge of trade policy, his political influence makes him a key interlocutor at a critical juncture.Arun Kumar Singh, former Ambassador to the US, echoed this, pointing to recent diplomatic momentum: “There is sustained and very serious engagement from both sides to complete the trade agreement. JD Vance’s visit signals continued high-level engagement… that helps create an atmosphere in which difficult issues can be addressed.”
Beyond the economy, strategic considerations loom large—especially concerning China. With growing security concerns in the Indo-Pacific and increasingly assertive moves from Beijing, all three experts noted that the US is keen to keep India close. Sibal described Vance as a “China hawk,” adding, “At a strategic level, the United States would like India to remain on its side rather than pushing India so hard that we begin to pursue even more hedging strategies.”
The optics of the visit, including Vance’s family visiting the Akshardham temple and donning Indian attire, have also been noted as important diplomatic signals. Rossow commented, “To imagine the Vice President having his kids dress up in local attire, travelling to cultural sites—this underscores that India has been given a priority place in this administration… The cultural affinity and connectivity are extremely important.”
Furthermore, Vance’s background could play a role if a future trade deal requires US legislative approval. Rossow highlighted this potential complexity, stating, “One big question looming over the trade agreement is whether US commitments will require legislative change.” He suggested Vance might offer India insights into “what is the Hill strategy if the deal requires the US to change its laws.” As Vance prepares to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi later today, the focus remains on leveraging this high-level engagement to resolve outstanding trade issues and strengthen the multifaceted partnership between the two nations.
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