Mobile phone users may be in for another round of tariff hikes this year ahead of Jio Platforms’s initial public offering of shares in the first half of 2026, telecom industry analysts predict.
Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel Ltd recently eliminated their cheapest pricing layer to boost their average revenue per user, a key telecom industry metric. At ₹250, Airtel has a higher Arpu than Jio’s ₹208.8.
Increasing telecom tariffs would help Jio Platforms improve its return on capital employed—a measure of how efficiently a company uses its capital to generate profits—and attract investors for a successful IPO, analysts said.
Reliance Jio is a subsidiary of Jio Platforms, the digital services and telecom arm of Reliance Industries Ltd. A tariff hike by Jio would leave room for Airtel to increase its prices as well.
Reliance Jio has more than 500 million subscribers, while Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea have 362.8 million and 197.7 million subscribers, respectively.
“Jio’s IPO is planned for (first half of 2026) subject to necessary approvals; we believe this increases the possibility of a 15% tariff hike in the telecom business by Nov-Dec 25 and hence is likely to be positive for RIL and Bharti, though it will be subject to a potential valuation for the Jio IPO,” JM Financial analysts said in a note dated 30 August.
JP Morgan analysts anticipate another telecom tariff hike next year as well.
“We believe this event (Jio Platform’s IPO) increases the likelihood of tariff hikes towards the end of CY25 (we bake in November) and also another one at end-CY26 (we bake in Nov-26) beyond recent actions at the bottom of the price table to maintain tariff and ROIC (return on invested capital) repair for the industry,” the analysts said in a note on Monday.
The analysts pegged Reliance Jio’s valuation at $133 billion, implying a 13 times multiple on its estimated 2026-27 enterprise value against its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
What Reliance shareholders are in for
A section of analysts expect Jio Platform’s public market listing to weigh on the shares of Reliance Industries.
“While Jio may attract higher value, RIL shareholders may not benefit hugely due to (holding company) valuation discount,” analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities said in a note on 29 August.
On the other hand, Citi analysts said Jio Platform’s listing does not warrant a meaningful discount for Reliance Industries as the Securities and Exchange Board of India plans to reduce the minimum public offer size for IPOs of large companies from 5% to 2.5%.
This means large companies would only be able to dilute only 2.5% share holding.
“(This) limits holding company discount concerns for RIL post listing of Jio given lower float,” the Citi analysts said in a note dated 31 August. Sebi’s proposal also removes a key liquidity hurdle for Jio Platform’s IPO, which could involve $3 billion of share supply, they added.
Reliance Industries shares were nearly unchanged at 2.15pm on Monday on NSE, up 0.23% at ₹1,360.30, while the Nifty 50 was up 0.76%.
