Philipp Ivanov, Founder of GRASP, stated, ” It’s very positive signs that the both sides, India and Pakistan, are trying to de-escalate the tensions. But of course, it is a long way to go. It is not so positive on other issues. Ukraine and Russia are very far from any agreement or even a ceasefire, and I think that we are going to discuss the US-China shortly as well.”
Ivanov urges caution when interpreting recent developments in the geopolitical hotspots. He expects Washington’s influence on the trajectory of the conflict to be “quite limited.” India might not be a primary focus for the US administration in the coming months, as the focus is on US-China trade deal and Russia-Ukraine negotiations.William Lee, Chief Economist and Executive Director at the Milken Instituteexpressed relief over the de-escalation between two nuclear-armed nations, calling it a welcome return to rationality.
Lee added, “The fact that the huge amount of violence has suddenly come to a stop is a great sign of sanity is coming back into the market, had a huge sigh of relief. Of all the geopolitical tensions I can think of this one, because we have two huge nuclear powers involved, is to me, one of the most dangerous.”Andy Rothman of Sinology LLC noted some positive developments in US-China relations over the weekend. He highlighted a significant senior-level meeting between the two nations, the first such high-level contact since the Trump administration began. Rothman pointed out that both sides appeared satisfied with the discussions, which he viewed as a positive sign.
Rothman added, “My assumption is that one of the reasons we are seeing more action on the China side, pretty abruptly, is that maybe President Trump is starting to feel a little bit nervous about the looming impact on inflation for American consumers on the possibility that store shelves might be a little bit bare in the coming months as cargo flows from China slowdown, and also that he’s likely to see more layoffs in the United States.”
He noted that many Chinese imports are intermediate goods, and the disruption is already leading to layoffs in the US, as companies struggle to source essential components or face higher costs. There’s also growing anxiety over the availability of critical materials like gallium, which are important for the US military and key industries, including electric vehicles.
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