JPMorgan had placed the stock on a positive catalyst watch in April. This was driven by:
- The belief that first-time buyer segment would continue to revive in the aftermath of the GST cuts
- The automaker, having a disproportionate share in the segment, would be a beneficiary.
- Maruti Suzuki’s order book and new capacity ramp-up would enable it to gain market share.
Maruti Suzuki India’s volumes in April-May 2026 recovered sharply, as expected, according to the JPMorgan note. It reported 38% and 22% growth in wholesale and retail growth, respectively during this period. Meanwhile, its retail market share expanded 120 basis points from the previous year to 40%.
However, the stock has underperformed the Nifty Auto index by 4% since the beginning of the financial year 2027, JPMorgan said. It believes this is driven by fears of a commodity-driven margin compression.JPMorgan’s thesis expects Maruti Suzuki’s margins to bottom in the first half of this financial year at around 6.8%, and improve thereafter to 7.7% in the second half of the year, and then to 8.5% in financial year 2028.
The note went on to add that the current stock price is discounting Maruti Suzuki’s EBIT margin to be 6.1% for financial year 2028.
Of the 49 analysts who have coverage on the stock, 43 have a “buy” rating, four have a “hold” rating and two have a “sell” rating.
Shares of Maruti Suzuki India ended the previous session 0.3% higher at ₹13,079 apiece. The stock has declined 2.6% in the past month and 21.72% this year, so far.
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