Saturday, May 2, 2026

May F&O Setup: FIIs trim long exposure from April; Here are the key levels and triggers

Date:

The Nifty contracts begin the May F&O series from Wednesday, April 29, after having closed the previous series with gains of 7.5%, thereby recovering a significant amount of 12% drop seen during the March series.

F&O Series Returns (Points)
April 2026 1,664
March 2026 -3093
February 2026 249
January 2026 -763

Historically, the May F&O series has not provided any specific or clear index trend, at least over the last four years. Most of the moves during this month are subject to result reactions, which is most likely to be the case this time around too, albeit other external factors will also have an important role to play.

May Series Year Returns (Points) Returns (%)
2022 -1,075 -6.2
2023 406 2.3
2024 -82 -0.4
2025 587 2.4

Similar to April, rollovers on the Nifty are still below their three-month average at the start of the new series. Rollovers are currently at 71.4%, marginally lower than their three-month average of 72.2%.

Series Rollovers
May 71.4
April 77.7
March 68.2
February 70.7
January 72.3

At the start of the May series, the Nifty open interest is at 1.45 crore shares, lower than that at the start of the April series and on similar levels compared to January and March.

Month Nifty Open Interest
May 1.45 Crore
April 2.09 Crore
March 1.34 Crore
February 1.62 Crore
January 1.4 Crore

Foreign Institutional Investors have trimmed their net long exposure to the index futures compared to April, although the figure continues to remain in the low-to-mid-teen levels.Currently, the FII net exposure to index futures stands at a net short 1.7 lakh contracts, while client long exposure stands at 73% with net longs of 1.2 lakh contracts.

Month FII Longs In Futures
May 13%
April 15%
March 14%
February 12%
January 9%

Today is an important day for the markets as it will bring out the outcome of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting and along with it, four out of the Mag 7 companies will be reporting their numbers after US market close as well.Earnings will continue to take the spotlight through the May series and besides the developments around the US-Iran war and the subsequent impact on oil supply and prices, will remain the most important trigger for the market.

Additionally, predictions surrounding the monsoons will also be keenly watched after the first estimates that were released earlier this month, which warned of a below-par rainy season this time around.

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