US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor described the discussion as a “great call between two friends.” But Chaudhuri notes that its significance lies less in the optics and more in the fact that it occurred without any obvious formal trigger. “This conversation did not really seem to have any particular purpose. Previous calls have been on occasions such as Modi’s birthday or congratulating Trump on diplomatic efforts,” he said. “This one seems to have been quite impromptu, which is a good sign.”
Chaudhuri argues that US foreign policy under Trump remains deeply personalised, making consistent leader-level engagement crucial for diplomatic momentum.“Trump runs a highly personalised foreign policy, and the fact that there was a gap between June and September was, in fact, a very bad sign in the relationship. We have reports that Modi refused to talk to Trump at least three times during that period, which is somewhat unprecedented in diplomacy,” he said.
The resumption of seemingly casual communication, therefore, is seen by analysts as a positive signal—particularly for the stalled trade negotiations.
Over the past year, Indian and American negotiators have nearly finalised a first-tranche trade deal on at least five separate occasions. Each time, Chaudhuri said, President Trump personally rejected the package on the grounds that India had not offered sufficient concessions, especially in agriculture and goods.
While the Union government has been willing to accept previous iterations of the agreement, Trump’s “political green signal” remains the critical missing element. The latest outreach may indicate a shift in Washington’s posture.
The call also came as a US Trade Representative (USTR) team landed in New Delhi. Although the team is not conducting detailed line-by-line discussions, the visit is being viewed as another encouraging indicator that talks are back on track.
“Though they are not here for any detailed conversations, what we know is that they are very close to a first-tranche agreement,” Chaudhuri said. He added that while the deal is unlikely to be concluded before the end of the calendar year, Indian officials—including the Chief Economic Advisor—expect it to be finalised by the end of the current fiscal year.
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For Indian exporters, who have continued shipping goods despite tariff losses in the hope of an early agreement, the renewed diplomatic warmth could offer some relief. Sectoral stakeholders in textiles, engineering goods and several other tariff-hit industries have been watching the political backdrop closely.
Chaudhuri believes the overall negotiating dynamic has shifted in India’s favour. Washington’s earlier attempt to build leverage—using punitive tariffs on Russian oil and existing duties—has not yielded the expected pressure. India’s economy, growing above 8% in the latest quarter, has not exhibited the vulnerabilities the Trump administration had anticipated.
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“The American view was that they had leverage over India through the 25% punitive tariff on Russian oil as well as the original tariff. But the Indian economy has thrived despite them,” Chaudhuri said. “We are starting to see the American side conclude that these pressure points are not working with India.”
As a result, he expects the US to move from coercive tactics to a more transaction-focused approach aimed at securing a mutually acceptable deal. Combined with the perceived diplomatic thaw between Modi and Trump, that shift may bring both countries closer to an agreement that has eluded them for more than a year.
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