Despite Beijing’s caution, there’s been no significant cancellations yet of trips to Japan on China’s biggest online travel booking platforms as of Monday, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified as the data is private.
Separately, the Japan Association of Travel Agents said it hasn’t heard of any significant cancellations taking place from its members “at this point.” “We intend to continue closely monitoring political developments going forward,” the association’s spokesperson said by phone.
In a 300-member chat group on Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu dedicated to discussing upcoming trips, most users said they planned to go ahead, seeing little risk in Japan. Some worried more about being criticized by fellow citizens for traveling despite the government warning. Others seemed unfazed.
“Politics is politics. And life is life,” wrote one user.
Still, the picture could change quickly with a variety of tools at Beijing’s disposal to limit travel to Japan, such as ordering flight reductions. As tensions escalate, nationalistic sentiment could also build and trigger a wider travel boycott.
The geopolitical rift follows Takaichi’s recent comments that military force used in any Taiwan conflict could be considered a “survival-threatening situation.” Beijing responded by advising its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan in the near term. On Monday, Japan dispatched a senior diplomat to China to cool tensions.
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Chinese account for roughly one in four visitors to Japan this year, according to Japan Tourism Statistics data. The country has remained a top draw for tourists, buoyed by a weak yen.
Fee waivers
As Chinese airlines digest the latest tensions between the two countries, they will be considering provisions to cushion any potential dip in travel demand. In such situations, they can ease cancellation policies by waiving fees and keep flexibility to swap widebody jets for smaller aircraft or consolidate flights on busy routes — measures seen as a last resort before cutting flights outright.
By contrast, Japanese carriers Japan Airlines Co. and ANA Holdings Inc’s All Nippon Airways told Bloomberg News that they aren’t offering ticket changes and have seen no immediate impact on bookings or flight loads.
“At the moment there is no changes to booking trend from China to Japan, or Japan to China but we will continue to closely monitor the situation,” Shinichi Inoue, All Nippon Airways president and chief executive officer, said in an interview on Saturday.
China accounts for up to 15% of Japanese carriers’ international capacity by seats sold, according to aviation analytics company Cirium. Demand between Japan and China has been slow to recover, the Japanese carriers told Bloomberg, leaving them more cautious on adding flights compared to their Chinese peers.
On Xiaohongshu, meanwhile, some users are making a show of canceling their Japan trips. One woman scrapped an eight-day itinerary from Kunming to Tokyo starting Nov. 24, sharing screenshots of her charge-free flight cancellations. Another said she was set to depart a day earlier but decided against going, and is now trying to get a refund for her Universal Studios tickets.
