Shares of National Aluminium Company Ltd. surged as much as 5% on Monday, December 22, touching a fresh life high, after management struck an optimistic tone on demand, pricing, and margins.The company expects the aluminium market to remain in a deficit, which should support prices, even as alumina moves into a surplus phase with new capacities coming on stream.
On pricing, Nalco sees aluminium holding firm in the range of $2,900 to $3,000 per tonne, while alumina prices are believed to have bottomed out and are likely to hover around $330 per tonne.
On the cost front, management indicated a favourable outlook. Captive coal production is ramping up, which should help lower input costs. Employee expenses, which currently account for about 15% to 16% of sales, are expected to trend down towards 10% to 12% over time.With these factors at play, Nalco expects margins to remain strong at around 42% to 45% over the next two quarters. The company has also lined up a capital expenditure of ₹1,700 crore per annum for the next two years. In addition, an extra 1 million tonne alumina refinery is scheduled to come on stream by mid-2026, adding to future capacity.
On pricing, Nalco sees aluminium holding firm in the range of $2,900 to $3,000 per tonne, while alumina prices are believed to have bottomed out and are likely to hover around $330 per tonne.
On the cost front, management indicated a favourable outlook. Captive coal production is ramping up, which should help lower input costs. Employee expenses, which currently account for about 15% to 16% of sales, are expected to trend down towards 10% to 12% over time.With these factors at play, Nalco expects margins to remain strong at around 42% to 45% over the next two quarters. The company has also lined up a capital expenditure of ₹1,700 crore per annum for the next two years. In addition, an extra 1 million tonne alumina refinery is scheduled to come on stream by mid-2026, adding to future capacity.
At the time of writing, Nalco shares were trading 4.70% higher at ₹291.60. The stock has rallied more than 36% so far in 2025.
