Nirmal Bang’s Arora says market unlikely to reclaim previous highs in 2025

Rahul Arora, CEO of Nirmal Bang Equities, expects the market to remain range-bound this year. Based on current data, reclaiming or surpassing the previous highs of 27,000 within this calendar year could be challenging.“From where we were a few months back, at 21,000-22,000 on the Nifty, we have rallied about 20%. It’s not like valuations are cheap right now. It is pretty much price to perfection. So any negative surprises will be met very negatively by the market, I don’t think room for substantial re-rating is there,” he said.

Arora believes that earnings for the January–March 2025 quarter (Q4FY25) were relatively better when compared to the average of the past eight quarters, particularly in terms of the upgrade-to-downgrade ratio.

While no major disappointments are expected in the April–June 2025 quarter (Q1FY26), recent developments such as Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical shifts, could keep investors looking for clues from IT companies’ 12-month outlook. The sector accounts for nearly 12% of the index and its performance remains crucial.Read Here | HSBC MF CIO sees discretionary demand and credit growth rebounding by year-endHe expects banks to perform reasonably well and the consumer segment to remain somewhat soft.

Cement, durables, and electricals are likely to remain flat, and defence is expected to hold steady. EMS players continue to perform well, although there has been some slowdown due to intermittent rains in various parts of India during the first quarter.

However, forecasts suggest a favourable monsoon, which could boost rural demand. In such a scenario, two-wheelers, consumer staples, and NBFCs that operate heavily in rural areas could benefit. Credit growth to the agricultural sector might also improve. The rural economy remains an important area to monitor, while consumer discretionary continues to show strength.

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