Nuvoco Vistas shares up 20% in two sessions after best day on record; Here’s what is driving the gains

Shares of Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd. extended their gains for the second consecutive day, resulting in their biggest-ever single-day gain on Wednesday, July 15.The stock surged 16.6% to hit an intraday high of ₹398 apiece on Monday, after rising 7.85% in the previous session. It has gained 25.7% in these two trading sessions. The stock has gained for a total of four of the last five trading sessions.

The stock has been reacting to its first quarter earnings. It reported consolidated volumes of 5.3 MT, up 5% from the previous year. Its realisations in the June quarter were up 2.7% from the year-ago period and up 7.1% sequentially.
Nuvoco reported an EBITDA / tonne of ₹1,072 in the first quarter compared to ₹1,037 in the previous year and ₹979 in the previous quarter.

Brokerages

Brokerages HSBC, Nomura, Jefferies and Dam Capital see up to 39% upside on the stock.HSBC has a target of ₹475 per share on the stock, while Nomura, Jefferies and DAM Capital have a target of ₹400, ₹430, and ₹440 respectively.

Factors at play

The company is bracing for a weak second quarter but it expects recovery in the second half of the financial year 2027. The valuations for financial year 2028 are at sub-$65 a tonne and at 6.5 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA. The ramp up of the acquired Vadraj asset is a key monitorable.

Realisations Beat Expectations

Nuvoco’s realisations were 4% above Nomura’s estimate due to a significant uptick in non-trade realizations in the first quarter.

Non-trade volumes account for roughly 30% of the industry mix. Nomura sees upside risk to earnings for companies, particularly for those concentrated in the eastern region of India.

More than 75% of Nuvoco’s business comes from East India, while for Dalmia Bharat, Shree Cement, Ramco Cement and Birla Corp, the figures stand at 40%, 25%, 20% and 10% to 15% respectively.

Greenshoots in East India for cement industry?

As per DAM Capital, volume offtake has picked up in Odisha by 14% in the January to May 2026 period compared to the previous year. Demand is resilient in Bihar. The brokerage expects a turnaround in West Bengal post the recent elections. It has estimated its demand outlook for the east to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% to 8% over financial year 2026-2028.

Shares of Nuvoco Vistas are trading 13% higher on Wednesday at ₹385.8. The stock, courtesy of this two day upmove, has turned positive on a year-to-date basis.

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